Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of PoliticsBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of PoliticsBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (69) |
Author: albaby1 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 84364 
Subject: Re: Dear MAGA, thank you for the foreign wars!
Date: 03/09/26 3:39 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 10
It's a little early to declare the entire thing a failure and/or start wringing our hands over what has been done or not done.

But the flip side is that it's a little early to declare the entire thing a success and assume we've ended the threat of Iran to the Free World, as LM was doing. No argument that the outcome of war is always uncertain. But right now, the likelihood is that the Iranian regime is going to come out in charge at the end as long as we don't have a full ground invasion. They've had decades to protect themselves against this exact scenario, and they're very well positioned to survive it:

fortune.com - U s intel assessment iran regime change was unlikely in either short or long war sources say

Doesn't mean the longshot won't come through. But the odds are that even a long, protracted "Libya-like" operation is still going to end with the regime still well in control of the country.

Their command and control is toast. Their Navy is now down 30+ ships and counting. Their Air Force has been severely degraded. Ballistic missile attacks are down over 90% and a high percentage of drones have been destroyed.

None of which materially degrades the ability of the regime to maintain itself as the sole domestic governing power. Don't confuse operational success with strategic success. We have been very effective in destroying military assets of Iran, but destroying those military assets is exceptionally unlikely to accomplish any strategic goals beyond destroying those military assets. We can destroy their navy, their air force, and their missiles - but that's not going to oust the regime from power. The Administration has been remarkably opaque and inconsistent about even the goals of the war (much less what we're going to do to achieve them), but none of the things they've publicly stated we're going to do are likely to lead to the regime losing power.

And now the IDF is blowing up their oil storage facilities. Their export terminals will likely be next. Meanwhile, we'll keep eliminating their ballistic missile capabilities.

We're already trying to push back on the IDF to get them to stop blowing up their oil facilities, so I don't think the export terminals will be next. We don't want to destroy Iran's oil producing capabilities. Because that will lead to higher gas prices, and longer-lasting higher gas prices:

axios.com - US dismayed israel iran fuel strikes

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to albaby1 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
It's going to get worse · 33 recs · 2025
G’day Donny · 30 recs · 2026
Old Related Story · 28 recs · 2026
HCR is a national treasure · 27 recs · 2025
Fascism in America · 27 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (69) |


Announcements
US Policy FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Politics | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community