No. of Recommendations: 4
I agree he wants the Strait to be open, but he also can't have that be the final outcome of the war unless and until his base is (in the main) willing to swallow that as a win. It's far more likely you get a sloppy interim phase where the Strait mostly opens but we're still just under a ceasefire, and hostilities could resume at any minute. That way he doesn't have to face questions about whether the outcome of his little "excursion" was good or bad or worth the cost - it still isn't over yet. All that gets resolved is the temporary status of the Strait.
And that might let him reach his only actual escape valve here: Someone Else To Blame. He can't win the war, so he needs to find someone else to lose the war other than him. And the best candidate for that is Congress. He's not going to get new money for the war without a winning game plan, and he's going to start losing some of those War Powers resolutions at some point. And that's the true endgame. That will allow the U.S. to exit the war with a terrible outcome but allow him to blame the Dumbocrats and the Coward Caucus for making it impossible for him to prosecute the war in the way that would win. He won't have failed, he will have been failed.
Yes, very plausible. It leads to the ultimate scenario that I gave - Trump declares victory, walks away with no agreement, and Iran controls Hormuz. It's a much quicker and worse strategic defeat than Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
