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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Max CAGR for 3 step Screens
Date: 06/09/24 10:52 AM
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And plenty of studies show reversal at the week level, so a bad last week is good.

True enough.
But, anecdotally: though this may be true on average, I find it is so unreliable that I have removed the negative one-week factor from all my screens. There seem to be multi-year stretches that good one week performance is good, not bad, for the next month.

The better improvements to momentum I found were (again, anecdotally from trading and backtesting)--
* the optimum length of lookback seems to vary with a stock's turnover ratio. i.e., the optimum look back seems to be some constant K times the average trader's hold period.
* lookbacks work better for some classes of stock with a LOT of lag than they do with fresh data, especially long lookbacks. i.e., instead of a negative factor on the most recent week (or more), just ignore the most recent week (or more). Even up to six weeks of lag for some boring value/dividend stuff.

I don't know if those comments have any merit, but I thought I'd share 'em.

Jim
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This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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