*                         4/7      4/14     4/21     4/28/25
S&P 500 Index             5074.08  5363.36  5282.70  5525.21
Trailing 12 month PE      23.24    24.62    23.81    24.82
Trail Earnings yield      4.30%    4.06%    4.20%    4.03%
Forward 12 month PE       19.54    20.77    19.57    20.42
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.12%    4.81%    5.11%    4.90%
90 day tbill yield        4.28     4.34     4.34     4.32
10 year tbond yield       4.01%    4.48%    4.34%    4.29
Arezi Ratio               0.99     1.07     1.03     1.07
Fed Ratio                 0.78     0.93     0.85     0.88

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 66%
stocks, 34% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 36%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 78%.

Elan

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