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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again

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BEFORE YOU READ — HAVE A GUESS
Munger joked that he only wanted to know one thing about where he was going to die. Why?
Almost nobody gets this right, which is rather the point. Hold your answer in mind — the guide will settle it.

Charlie Munger: Invert, Always Invert

Warren Buffett supplied Berkshire’s patience. Charlie Munger supplied something rarer: a way of thinking that finds the answer by turning the question upside down.

For more than half a century, Munger was the quieter half of the most successful investing partnership in history — the man Buffett called his “abominable no-man,” the partner whose job was to find the reason not to do the deal. He was a lawyer by training, a polymath by obsession, and a teacher by temperament. And of all the mental tools he championed, none was more central than a single, strange-sounding instruction he borrowed from the nineteenth-century mathematician Carl Jacobi: invert, always invert.

Solving the problem backwards

Jacobi’s point was that many hard problems are best solved in reverse. Munger took the idea out of mathematics and applied it to everything. Instead of asking “how do I get what I want?”, ask “what would guarantee I don’t get it?” — and then carefully avoid all of those things. As Munger put it, with his usual dry grin: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”

It sounds like a joke. It is actually a discipline. Given a goal, most people charge straight at it, brainstorming every clever move that might carry them there. The Shrewd thinker first turns around and lists the ways the whole thing could blow up — then avoids them, one by one. What is left is a path far safer, and usually far clearer, than anything the forward-only thinker ever finds.

And notice: none of this is really about money. Inversion works on anything you care about. How do I build a career I won’t regret? Invert — picture what would make me despise it in twenty years, and refuse those turns. How do I keep a friendship, or my health? Ask what reliably wrecks them, and steer wide. Munger sharpened these tools on markets, but he used them on life — and that is where they repay you most.

The Shrewd insight: Brilliance is optional; avoiding stupidity is not. Munger built a fortune less by incredible feats than by being consistently and deliberately not stupid.

Why avoiding folly beats chasing genius

Munger loved to note how much long-term advantage he and Buffett gained simply by trying to be reliably not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. The idea is quietly radical. In investing, a single catastrophic mistake — the ruinous loan, the leveraged bet, the fraud you didn’t check — can erase decades of good decisions. So the highest-leverage move isn’t a flash of genius; it is the unglamorous work of removing the ways you could be wiped out. Inversion is the tool that makes those ways visible.

So let us actually do it. Turn the ordinary investing question inside out — and a short, uncomfortable list appears that almost nobody thinks to write down.

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