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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Welcome, Shrewd — a quick, honest note
Shrewd’m is a free community of independent investors, and this is a place to learn — not to be sold to. No bank, broker or financial service sponsors these pages; nothing here is for sale — no products, no accounts, no funds, no fees. Everything is education and conversation, offered freely. We take a cheerful, irreverent view of Wall Street’s noise, because the whole Shrewd idea is that you think for yourself and take responsibility for your own decisions. In our experience the two truest marks of a happy life are wonderfully simple: staying in control of your own life, and keeping a mind that never stops learning. That is all this place is really for.
None of this is personalised financial advice — just ideas, shared in good faith, for you to weigh for yourself.
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BEFORE YOU READ — HAVE A GUESS
Schloss compounded at roughly 20% a year for five decades. How many company visits did he make, and how many analysts did he employ?
Almost nobody gets this right, which is rather the point. Hold your answer in mind — the guide will settle it.

Walter Schloss: The Quiet Discipline of Deep Value

Almost every investing legend is out of reach. Buffett had a once-in-a-century mind, Fisher had visionary judgement, Munger read three hundred books a year. Walter Schloss had a filing cabinet, a copy of Value Line, and a rule he refused to break — and he beat the market for nearly fifty years.

He never went to college. At eighteen he was a runner on Wall Street, carrying securities between offices for $15 a week. He took Benjamin Graham’s evening courses at the New York Stock Exchange Institute because they were free to employees, eventually worked for Graham, and in 1955 — when Graham wound up his partnership — set out on his own with 92 investors and a single room.

That room is worth picturing, because it is the whole story. No analysts. No Bloomberg terminal. For most of his career, no computer. He did not visit companies. He did not attend management presentations. He did not have lunch with brokers to hear what was coming. Annual reports arrived in the post. His son Edwin joined him in 1973, and for decades the two of them sat in that room, read, and bought what nobody else wanted.

The numbers, and why they are the right numbers for you

In Warren Buffett’s celebrated 1984 essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville — written to demolish the academic claim that beating the market is luck — Schloss is the very first case study. Buffett’s table covers the 28 years and three months from 1956, and it is worth reading slowly:

Over those 28 years the method compounded at 21.3% a year — a total gain of 23,104.7% — against 8.4% a year for the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, a gain of 887.2%. (His own investors received 16.1%, the difference being his fee: no management charge at all, and a quarter of the profits. You, running the method yourself, pay that to nobody.)

What that means for $10,000, left alone across those same 28 years:

$10,000, 1956 to 1984 Compound rate Became
Gold bullion 8.1% about $88,000
The S&P 500 8.4% about $99,000
Schloss’ method 21.3% about $2,320,000

Spare a thought for the gold bugs. Their metal was pegged at $35 an ounce until Washington abandoned the peg in 1971, then spiked to $850 in the inflation panic of January 1980 — and by the end of 1984 had sagged back to $308. Twenty-eight years of drama, one currency crisis, one genuine bubble, and it still finished behind a dull index fund, having paid not a cent of dividends along the way and charged you for the vault. It is the perfect control experiment: a thing that merely sits there versus a share of a business that employs people, earns money, and reinvests it.

Read the Schloss row again. The same $10,000, over one working career, in the same decades, from the same publicly available annual reports that were sitting in everybody else’s post box. And this was no lucky streak that ended with the essay: he went on compounding for another decade and a half, closing the fund in 2000 — politely returning capital when he could no longer find things cheap enough — stopping outside management in 2003, and dying in 2012 at 95.

The Shrewd insight: Thirteen percentage points a year over the index sounds like a different universe. It wasn’t. It was a modest edge on each individual decision, applied without exception, and then left undisturbed for decades. Compounding does not reward brilliance; it rewards duration — and Schloss simply refused to be knocked off the track for fifty years.

Why he matters more to you than the geniuses do

Here is the uncomfortable thing about most investing heroes: studying them can leave you feeling worse. You finish the biography quietly aware that you do not have Buffett’s memory for balance sheets, or Munger’s appetite for a hundred disciplines, or Fisher’s nose for the next great franchise.

Schloss offers no such excuse. He had no informational advantage — he used publicly available figures that anyone could read. He had no analytical advantage — he did arithmetic, not forecasts. He had no access advantage — he deliberately never met the executives. What he had was a method he applied without deviation, and the emotional constitution to keep applying it when it felt awful. Both of those are learnable, and both are precisely what being Shrewd means. Neither requires a gifted mind.

Which raises the obvious question, and it is the one worth turning the page for: what exactly did he do? The answer is so simple that most people, on first hearing it, refuse to believe it could have worked.

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Falling Knives — where value hunters weigh what everyone else is avoiding
Selling leads to more selling. A falling price frightens holders into selling, which lowers the price, which frightens more holders — and a good business can drift into a zeitgeist of neglect that lasts years, its price set by a crowd that has stopped looking rather than by anything about the company. The Falling Knives board at Shrewd’m is where that gets exploited deliberately: members bring the beaten-down and the written-off, and the community argues over which are genuinely broken and which are quality, temporarily unloved — taking advantage of a fearful environment with particularly irrational price discounting. The board is candid about the risk: a stock that has fallen a long way can keep falling, which is why the work is done carefully, in modest position sizes, with a long horizon. It is Walter Schloss’ discipline exactly — balance sheet first, story second — among people who will happily tell you what you have overlooked before your money is on the line.
Read the Falling Knives board »



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