But during those 10 years wasn't the benchmark index (QQQ) down some 50%? Significant outperformance in that respect.


Yes.
$1000 in QQQ dropped to $480. Slightly more than 50% down.

However, timed by 52 week SMA
$1000 in QQQ went to $14,900


B&H CAGR
...............QQQ.......3x
2000-2023 5.89% -5.40%
2000-2010 -6.88% -43.52%
2010-2023 16.39% 38.27%

Timed by 52 week SMA
...............QQQ.......3x
2000-2023 8.00% 14.73%
2000-2010 4.12% 0.93%
2010-2023 10.95% 26.07%

Timing helped during the bad period, but hurt in the good period. C'est la vie.
OTOH, you don't know ahead of time if the next 10 years are going to be good or bad.



By way of comparison, SPY (using the 52 week SMA of SPY)
B&H CAGR
.............SPY
2000-2023 4.86%
2000-2010 -2.46%
2010-2023 10.59%

Timed
.............SPY
2000-2023 4.35%
2000-2010 2.34%
2010-2023 5.85%

Wth SPY, same. timing helped in the bad period, but hurt in the good period.

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FWIW, the QQQ 52-wk SMA has been a buy since 3/20/23.
Before that it was a sell since 4/11/22 except for a 1 week whipsaw the week of 2/6/23.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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