No. of Recommendations: 3
I took a look at NHNL trading, checking weekly on Friday close, and trading on next-trading-day close.
From 3/15/99 to 3/20/23, I broke the GTR1 NHNL values into deciles, and found total QQQ return within each decile:
1st decile (NHNL values from 5.75 to 15.07) => QQQ return -16.32%
2nd decile (3.99 to 5.47) => QQQ +13.32%
3rd decile (2.73 to 3.98) => QQQ -0.89%
4th decile (1.89 to 2.73) => QQQ +70.37%
5th decile (1.14 to 1.89) => QQQ +10.49%
6th decile (0.32 to 1.14) => QQQ +162.57%
7th decile (-0.76 to 0.32) => QQQ +72.45%
8th decile (-2.21 to -0.76) => QQQ -21.04%
9th decile (-4.98 to -2.23) => QQQ +14.01%
10th decile (-29.53 to -5.00) => QQQ -4.56%
Holding TQQQ when NHNL values are in the 4th to 7th deciles (or possibly even 2nd to 7th) might be something to consider?
