Running the numbers of 'no new investment, huge special dividends' usually pencils out to some impressive values.

Yes, I guess the numbers look so good, it makes sense to at least give lip service to the idea. The question is, will the company stick to the plan? Most do not.

Apart from the possibility that Occidental and Chevron and maybe others (like Southern Oil of Louisiana, Abraxas Petroleum, thanks nola for the comment) actually follow this game plan, it may be that the social and political pressure in favour of cutting back on exploration and also transportation, refining, etc.) being much stronger now, maybe more companies will cut back on exploration, even if they don't stop altogether. And the added bonus for all of them, if they do, is that oil prices may stay higher for longer.

It's not hard to imagine that when falling output (from non-investment) meets persistent demand (from people who will keep travelling in planes and buying big cars and consuming plastic, despite claiming to be very concerned about global warming), the price of oil could end up a lot higher than it is now. It wouldn't take many more years like last year for an investment in OXY to pan out. OXY is at 5 times last year's earnings for a reason: investors are not counting on good years like last year happening for long. But they might.

dtb