BTC has no deficit, no debt, no unfunded liabilities or political affiliations. As hard as governments try they just can't stop it. I give BTC a 50/50 chance of replacing the USD as the world's reserve currency in the next ten years.

I'd happily take the other side of that bet - I think it's a longshot that BTC even survives 5 more years. Despite many years of promises of it becoming the new world currency, it is making no real traction - 99.97% of people (made-up number) have never used it for anything. Governments of the USA and elsewhere are finally starting to crack down on cryptocurrency operations, and we've seen a slew of bankruptcies in just the last 12 months. The market cap of all cryptocurrencies has fallen from $3 trillion to $800 billion just in the last year. Some of the biggest players are gone (FTX, Silvergate, Signature Bank). Coinbase just received a Wells notice - we'll see where that goes. Regulators are waking up to the fact that the sector has become big enough to be systemically important, and they are, I think, unlikely to keep turning a blind eye to activities that are semi-legal or frankly illegal for securities markets.

OK, Bitcoin is up a bit from its lows, although it is still down 50% over the last 18 months. But Ponzi schemes, even ones that have lasted a long time and looked pretty stable, fall awfully fast when people start to doubt whether they represent real value or not.

dtb