That is the theory, as I understand it. Folks like ARK believe that pure AV TaaS will be so much cheaper than operating a privately owned car that people will give up car ownership wholesale. They think that these things will be so much cheaper that people will make that switch.

In addition to the assumption that the vast majority of people will be using AV TaaS, AKR had another assumption that a big percentage of the remainder who own their cars will be willing to loan them for rideshare during peak times. I don't think that's a good assumption at all. If you own a car you will most likely be driving it during peak times.

Now, this might make sense if you have lightly used second car that is available to be loaned out. But those are the vehicles TaaS will eliminate first. I simply don't believe their assumptions. In fact, their conclusions are wild enough I wonder if ARK even believes them.

In related news, Elon posted on Twitter today that the robotaxi safety driver should be eliminated by the end of the year. That clearly won't happen for regulatory reasons alone. But the responses are very interesting. There is a bit of skepticism mixed with an outpouring of gushing praise and excitement.

X (Twitter): Elon Musk on X: "@DirtyTesLa The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe. Should be no safety driver by end of year." / X