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Personal Finance Topics / Retirement Investing
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Author: rayvt ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 767 
Subject: Re: Protecting the Downside
Date: 09/25/2025 3:28 PM
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Growth & Trend Timing.

https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt...

51 page PDF

Key info is on page 46. "The above construction of GTT–using the dual signals of real retail sales growth and industrial production growth–is the preferred “recession-timing” construction shown in the beginning of the piece. As you can see, the strategy on that construction consistently outperforms everything, by a very large margin."

Do not use UNRATE (unemployment rate), since that is subject to political pressure.
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