No. of Recommendations: 13
For all 60 month (5 year) rolling periods, 1950 to 2017...
I think the salient question is something more like this: what percentage of five year rolling periods did the S&P 500 and cap weighted predecessors beat rolling T-bills, averaged across only those starting dates that the median firm was trading above (say) two times trailing sales as is currently the case?
Mr Bayes should not be ignored. If the starting situation is not historically typical, there is no good reason to expect the historically typical outcome.
Jim
