I mean...it's not hard to figure that out? This is a must-pass, and Democrats control the Senate.

This makes me think that the CR is a now or never thing. A partial shutdown is looming on Saturday. They could try to get something passed after an abbreviated Christmas break and before the next Congress is seated (Jan 3??). If they don't get it by then, the House is down for the count until they elect a speaker. I don't expect Johnson to sail through, as there can be zero defections with a 217-215 House. So there's at least a couple of days and some political capital spent. Or we could have another week (or longer) free for all like we did 2 years ago. Then you've got the problem you mention of the couple of GOP members who will never vote for a CR. So you've got to get some House Democrats on board. That's going to take some concessions to something(s) the Democrats want, which will be a tough pill for many MAGA members to swallow.

And we haven't made it over to the Senate yet with their issues.

Lastly, there's the wild card in the White House. The President-elect will be clamoring to put this all off until Jan 21 so that he can be the one to claim the glory for getting the shutdown ended. (It will almost certainly be framed as the "Biden" shutdown even though it had nothing to do with Biden.)

Looking like a very Grinch Christmas this year.

--Peter

PS - How's the Santa Claus rally in the stock market doing??