No. of Recommendations: 1
"I just wanted to add to that: the comment above is interesting and perhaps useful, but should not be confused with an estimate of the intrinsic value of a share."
Nice analysis. Thank you for sharing, Jim.
I'm trying to infer your estimate of current intrinsic value. If I understand you correctly, your 20-year average valuation is intended to give a smoothed valuation level that tracks IV, but which is not necessarily equal to IV. It's apparently the average of your two and a half valuation and 1.5 times the 16 quarter WMA of BV. Is this correct?
Your current valuation level is $612,733, which corresponds to 1.554 times the 16 quarter WMA book value, which I calculate to be $394,284. It is also 1.326 times the March 31 BV/share.
From our recent discussion of IV/BV I understood, or misunderstood, your estimate of current IV to current BV to be flat over the last 25 years at a value of about 1.60. Certainly not 1.32 in Dec 1999 as I suggested.
Would you mind straightening me out? What would be your estimate of current IV to current BV?
FWIW, I'm still holding with an IV estimate of about 1.54x BV, based on a couple of models, but I would not argue with any estimate within 8 or 9 percent of that number.
Thanks for your input.
rrr12345
