No. of Recommendations: 6
Shriek about Berkshire.
ONLY Berkshire.
Fair enough.
My best estimate is that Berkshire's growth in observable value per share (with book probably still a not-too-bad proxy) will fall from the inflation plus 8%/year rate of recent decades to inflation plus 3-4%/year in the next decade, measured in trade-weighted currency terms.* Price return is likely to be similar or a hair lower.
Not because of the drag of size, the cash allocation, the change in CEO, or the starting valuation level.
OK, maybe 5% if things go well, the most likely reason for that being much lower US equity valuation levels.
Jim
* or just measure the real total return in a half dozen major currencies and average the results, as a proxy for the real purchasing power of a share.
