No. of Recommendations: 6
I am not predicting it, rather hoping that the exiting Republicans that got screwed by Trump and those who got re-elected by a small margin will see the writing on the wall that following Trump no matter what is not a good look. Those who are leaving are irrelevant, because the impeachment
and conviction could hardly be wrapped up by the middle of January without it looking like a kangaroo court, even if it’s totally deserved.
The new ones coming in or the ones coming back by a thin margins might take heed from prior history:
There were seven Republican Senators who voted to convict across Trump’s two impeachments.
Six of them were out of a job at their next election, either knocked out in the primary by a “more Republican” candidate, or because they chose not to run for re-election because they knew there was no path to victory.
The only one who has been reelected since was Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and it is probably the ranked vote system that has allowed her to maintain her status. Her most recent election was in 2022, so there was also a substantial “cooling off” period which may have helped. Goofyhoofy replies on Democrats Take The SenateI have not looked at a careful analysis of which Republicans managed to buck the tide, but I do know that for several years they’ve been purging moderates in favor of hard-Right candidates, so I suspect that those left aren’t going to be amenable to joining the Democrats in an impeachment conviction - but I could be wrong, or I should say I see that as a slim possibility.
The best Dems can probably do is subpoenas, criminal trials where appropriate, and create lots of single-issue legislation where Republicans have to take a stand against things that are vastly popular: data center noise, health care, reproductive freedom, gay rights, decriminalizing marijuana, reigning in ICE, and so on. That they will all get vetoed even if passed (but recorded) only sets up 2028 in an even better way than 2026.